Hello, I'm Stefan. Please spend 5 minutes to look at the samples attached to my proposal - they detail my work and quality and are similar with the one you demand; in the attached samples real figures were replaced for confidentiality reasons, so you will find odd data.
I have 8 years experience working in business modelling, accounting, audit and financial advisory. I've built models for existing businesses and start-ups with multiple products and revenue streams for manufacturing companies ( garments, furniture, oil products, iron casting and metal works, cardboard packaging, barite iron ore mining) and in service sector (SAAS, web portals and web development, water supply and waste water management, architecture, retail, financial services). In hotel & restaurant industry I also produced linear optimization for price-product mix.
It will take between 3 to 5 days (10-15 work hours, at 25 USD/ hour ), depending on data I have to search, and will build the model in one excel file, with 3 scenarios, so you can compare "What if scenarios" and plan ahead your next moves. You will have for each scenario an assumptions sheet that will control the model;from this tab you can vary the inputs for all your variables, and for each revenue stream: product mix, pricing, payroll costs, variable costs, overheads. You can use the scenarios to show investors you thought in advance to what follows, that you are prepared, you have alternatives and you've done your homework - if you request more scenarios, I can build more.
You can see in the my samples that after setting the assumptions, you will have pages for sales, payroll, receivables, payables and debt; these data are used to build a thorough Income Statement, Cash Flow and Balance Sheet. Each financial statement is cross checked with the other 2, and also have an indirect Cash Flow for increased accuracy. Metrics and ratios come to the end of the model.
Following the ratio analysis, I will simulate a Sensitivity Analysis that will tell you what variation in a key ratio each variable produces (for example what impact will have upon profitability decreasing the price and with what percentage ... you can link this with what variation will produce to profitability an increase to the same product quantity). This will give you a huge understanding at how sensitive the business is to each variable change.
Also, after building the Proformas, I will run a Monte Carlo simulation (based on an agreed +&- variation of the variables). This report is made to answer your questions regarding the achievement certainty of a specific ratio, (given all data we have I will show the certainty in reaching the predicted results).
I can help you finding the right mix of price, quantities of sales and type of services to maximize your profit using linear programming. Sensitivity, Monte Carlo simulations and Optimization are made using an Excel add-in: Oracle's Crystal Ball.
I believe my financial forecasts and models have few competitors in terms of business representation and reality modeling: I have formulas for every event that can occur in the live of a business. In building my models I use arrays and names, so introducing a new feature will not require a massive change in model architecture or a failure of the model. I also have a powerful computer set-up that allows me to deal with a large data sets - this will help us to build scenarios with multiple variables to match reality.
My abilities to crunch, analyze and interpret numbers make me a good fit for the job you have.
Work is thorough and well referenced and all my forecasts are made correct, respecting the accounting equation, and it can be verified by comparing amounts in Balance Sheet, Cash Flow and Indirect Method Cash Flow. I offer full guarantee for formulas computing my figures, and offer full support, free of charge, after job is finished, in terms of small changes of the initial project and changes of figures and quantities required by an investor.
Hope I sparked your interest, and look forward for an interview.
Kind regards, Stefan.